IRS Filing Season Is Running 2.4% Behind Last Year. Here's What That Means for CPAs.

The IRS is running 2.4% behind last year's filing pace through Feb. 27, but average refunds are up 10.6%. That gap - fewer returns but bigger refunds - tells CPAs something important about who's filing early this year and what it means for the final push to April 15.

As of Feb. 27, the IRS had received 51.5 million individual returns compared to roughly 52.7 million at the same point in 2025. Returns processed are also down slightly year-over-year. But the average refund - $3,742 - is up $360 from last year's $3,382.

The IRS releases these statistics weekly during filing season. They're useful for benchmarking client filing pace, setting refund expectations, and identifying which taxpayer segments are filing when.

Why Fewer Returns But Bigger Refunds?

Two things are happening. First, early filers this year skew toward refund-claimers, not balance-due filers. That's normal, but the skew is more pronounced in 2026 because of Schedule 1-A.

Schedule 1-A is the new form for Trump's four tax breaks: tips, overtime, seniors, and auto loan interest. As of March 4, 43% of returns included Schedule 1-A. Those filers saw refunds $775 bigger than the typical 2025 refund, according to IRS CEO Frank Bisignano.

Translation: the people who stand to gain the most from the new deductions are filing early to claim their refunds. The people who owe - or who have more complex returns - are waiting until closer to April 15. That's why the total return count is down but the average refund is up.

Second, the filing season started one day earlier this year (Jan. 26 vs. Jan. 27 in 2025), but processing delays from the IRS's system upgrades to handle Schedule 1-A and the new SALT limits may have slowed early throughput slightly. The IRS doesn't break out processing bottlenecks in these weekly reports, but practitioners are reporting longer turnaround times for returns flagged for manual review.

What CPAs Should Watch

The IRS expects 164 million returns by April 15. At the current pace (51.5 million through Feb. 27), the agency is roughly one-third of the way there. If the pace holds, we're on track for a filing season that's 2-3% smaller than 2025 - not a collapse, but a noticeable slowdown.

Why does that matter? Because it changes the IRS's resource allocation for the final six weeks. If the agency is processing fewer returns early, it has more capacity to handle the April rush. That could mean faster refunds for late filers - or it could mean more returns flagged for review because the IRS has more staff available to scrutinize filings.

Watch the weekly updates. If the filing pace picks up in mid-March (it usually does), we'll end the season close to 2025 levels. If it stays flat, expect the IRS to redirect resources toward enforcement and audit selection earlier than usual.

How to Use This Data

First, benchmark your client filing pace against the national average. If you've filed 30-35% of your expected returns by early March, you're on pace. If you're behind that, you need to push harder on client communication and deadline reminders.

Second, use $3,742 as your refund baseline when clients ask "is my refund normal?" That's the official IRS average through Feb. 27. If your client's refund is wildly different, review their withholding and estimated payments for 2026.

Third, if your client filed Schedule 1-A (tips, overtime, seniors, auto loan interest), their refund should be roughly $775 higher than last year's baseline. That's the cleanest comparison based on actual IRS data, not projections.

What Comes Next

The IRS will continue releasing weekly filing statistics through April and then monthly updates after Tax Day. These reports include cumulative totals for returns received, returns processed, and refunds issued. They're useful for tracking trends, but they don't break out granular detail on filing methods, state-by-state variance, or audit selection rates.

For practitioners, the key takeaway is this: we're one-third through the season, filings are down slightly, refunds are up significantly. That tells you who's filing early (refund-claimers) and who's waiting (balance-due filers and complex returns).

Plan your workflow accordingly. The April rush is coming, and it's going to be concentrated in the final two weeks. If you're not already scheduling client meetings and setting internal deadlines, you're behind.

The numbers are public. Use them to manage client expectations, benchmark your practice's pace, and prepare for the final six weeks.